Daria Kasatkina vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 8–10
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#58 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa have met 8 times since 2022; Paula Badosa leads 5–3. Their first meeting came at Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Badosa leads 3–1. On clay courts Kasatkina leads 2–1. Badosa has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 8 sets to Badosa's 10. Their most recent meeting: Paula Badosa won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 31% | 14/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 51% | 19/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 83% | 20/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 3, Badosa 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Paula Badosa.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Oct 1, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 2, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 31, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jul 5, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Apr 18, 2023
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 6, 2022
Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic - San Jose
H Hard · Semifinals
May 12, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 14, 2022
Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 21% | 3/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 1.72 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | -3.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | -0.52u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | 10,936 mi · 17,599 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | BRA → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Badosa has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Kasatkina's 29%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | L 57 06 | W 75 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 36 26 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 46 16 | L 46 26 |
| Simona Waltert | L 67 63 46 | W 75 75 |
| Emiliana Arango | W 62 36 76 | W 63 62 |
| Daria Snigur | L 36 63 67 | L 16 67 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Daria Kasatkina
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Nadia Podoroska
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Semifinals
Sep 19
Mary Stoiana
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Jazmin Ortenzi
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Justina Mikulskyte
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Daria Kasatkina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–45 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 60% |
| Sets won | 51% | 59% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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