Daria Kasatkina vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 7–6
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#83 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
6wDaria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa have met 6 times since 2022; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney in 2022 on hard. On clay courts Kasatkina leads 2–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 7 sets to Badosa's 6. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- U.S. Open - New York
- Level
- Grand Slam
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 1 · 11:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
Priced around 2.11 or longer, Daria Kasatkina has won 42 of 96 matches, 44% against a fair-price expectation of 39%.
Priced around 1.74 or shorter, Paula Badosa has won 96 of 141 matches, 68% against a fair-price expectation of 63%.
Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.
Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa meet next at the U.S. Open - New York on September 1 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 55% | 17/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 83% | 19/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 78% | 18/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 3, Badosa 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
May 31, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jul 5, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Apr 18, 2023
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 6, 2022
Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic - San Jose
H Hard · Semifinals
May 12, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 14, 2022
Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 35% | 6/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.70 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | +18.2% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | +3.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Badosa has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Kasatkina's 29%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 36 26 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 46 16 | L 46 26 |
| Simona Waltert | L 67 63 46 | W 75 75 |
| Emiliana Arango | W 62 36 76 | W 63 62 |
| Daria Snigur | L 36 63 67 | L 16 67 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 63 64 |
| Katerina Siniakova | L 67 26 | W 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Mayar Sherif
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Panna Udvardy
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Katarzyna Kawa
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 1st Round
Jul 22
Tamara Zidansek
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Semifinals
Jul 18
Panna Udvardy
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Alevtina Ibragimova
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Anhelina Kalinina
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 1st Round
Jul 14
Simona Waltert
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–39 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 59% |
| Sets won | 47% | 59% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |