Daria Kasatkina vs Peyton StearnsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 10–6
🇺🇸Peyton Stearns
#54 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Peyton Stearns have met 7 times since 2023; Daria Kasatkina leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2023 on clay. On hard courts Kasatkina leads 3–1. On clay courts Kasatkina leads 2–1. Kasatkina has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 10 sets to Stearns's 6. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at Internationaux de Strasbourg - Strasbourg (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Peyton Stearns | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 90% | 18/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 75% | 15/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 3, Stearns 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Stearns
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,880 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Peyton Stearns.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 19, 2026
Internationaux de Strasbourg - Strasbourg
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 1, 2025
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 28, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 30, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 16, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 15, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 2, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Peyton Stearns | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.75 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | -35.8% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | -3.22u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 1,228 mi · 1,977 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | ECU → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Stearns has a higher win rate against shared opponents (43% vs Kasatkina's 29%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Janice Tjen | W 67 61 64 | W 64 64 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 67 60 36 | L 46 63 57 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 67 | L 06 63 46 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 57 36 |
| Daria Snigur | L 36 63 67 | W 64 60 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | L 67 63 26 | L 46 57 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Clara Tauson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Harriet Dart
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Elvina Kalieva
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Tatiana Prozorova
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mary Stoiana
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 29
Nikola Bartunkova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Kimberly Birrell
Eastbourne
Jun 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–39 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 51% |
| Sets won | 47% | 53% |
| Games won | 49% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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