Alexei Popyrin vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexei Popyrin and Tommy Paul have met 5 times since 2019; Tommy Paul leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 2–1. Paul has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Popyrin has taken 5 sets to Paul's 9. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Popyrin | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexei Popyrin | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 5/11 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 6/21 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 12/32 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 15% | 2/13 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 8/19 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 3/9 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 62% | 8/13 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 38% | 5/13 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Popyrin 1, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Popyrin
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Jun 13, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 2nd Round
Oct 31, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Feb 3, 2021
Murray River Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 5, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Popyrin | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexei Popyrin | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.99 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -33.8% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.70u | +1.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 145 mi · 233 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Popyrin's 40%).
| Opponent | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 36 46 | L 57 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 64 63 | W 62 36 76 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 46 75 63 | W 61 36 75 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 36 63 75 | L 57 67 |
| Alexandre Muller | L 62 36 63 67 67 | W 61 62 61 |
| Zachary Svajda | L 63 36 67 57 | W 75 63 |
| Casper Ruud | L 46 36 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | W 64 63 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 63 46 67 | W 75 46 76 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 36 46 | W 46 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Francesco Maestrelli
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Thiago Agustin Tirante
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Raphael Collignon
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Roman Andres Burruchaga
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Andy Andrade
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jiri Lehecka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Jan Choinski
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Raphael Collignon
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 1st Round
Jun 16
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–51 matches
| Metric | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 31% | 69% |
| Sets won | 35% | 64% |
| Games won | 47% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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