Alexei Popyrin vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexei Popyrin and Tommy Paul have met 5 times since 2019; Tommy Paul leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 2–1. Paul has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Popyrin has taken 5 sets to Paul's 9. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Popyrin | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexei Popyrin | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 5/11 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 5/21 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 11/32 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 14% | 2/14 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 39% | 7/18 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 22% | 2/9 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 67% | 8/12 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 42% | 5/12 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Popyrin 1, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Popyrin
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Jun 13, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 2nd Round
Oct 31, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Feb 3, 2021
Murray River Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 5, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Popyrin | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexei Popyrin | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -0.9% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.07u | +0.17u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 2 |
| Distance | — | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | — | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Popyrin's 40%).
| Opponent | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 62 67 67 26 | L 16 26 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 46 36 | W 64 36 67 61 63 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 36 46 | L 57 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 64 63 | W 62 36 76 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 46 75 63 | W 61 36 75 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 36 63 75 | L 57 67 |
| Alexandre Muller | L 62 36 63 67 67 | W 61 62 61 |
| Zachary Svajda | L 63 36 67 57 | W 75 63 |
| Casper Ruud | L 46 36 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Tabilo
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Grigor Dimitrov
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Hugo Gaston
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Francesco Maestrelli
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Thiago Agustin Tirante
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Raphael Collignon
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Roman Andres Burruchaga
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–58 matches
| Metric | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 32% | 69% |
| Sets won | 36% | 64% |
| Games won | 47% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Popyrin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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