Alexander Bublik vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Bublik and Brandon Nakashima have met 1 time since 2026; Alexander Bublik leads 1–0. Across all meetings Bublik has taken 2 sets to Nakashima's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Bublik won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bublik | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 19/28 | 74% | 23/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 40% | 8/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 14/47 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 17/38 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 4/9 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 22/25 | 85% | 28/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 19/25 | 70% | 23/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bublik 0, Nakashima 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Alexander Bublik and Brandon Nakashima are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,464 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 11, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bublik | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 52% | 11/21 |
| 15 or more | 42% | 5/12 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 20 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 5% | 1/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bublik | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–5 | 15–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -9.9% | +27.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.19u | +5.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bublik | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Bublik's 40%).
| Opponent | Bublik | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Berrettini | L 46 46 | W 76 75 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 46 67 | W 61 36 107 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 26 36 | W 76 64 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 62 | W 62 61 60 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 46 76 76 46 63 | L 57 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 67 46 46 | W 76 46 63 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 57 64 62 | W 76 57 75 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 16 16 | W 76 64 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Quentin Halys | L 46 67 | W 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Tomas Machac
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rafael Jodar
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Tommy Paul
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Adrian Mannarino
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
J.J. Wolf
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–59 matches
| Metric | Bublik | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 59% |
| Sets won | 58% | 58% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bublik | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bublik | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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