Alex Michelsen vs Carlos AlcarazPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Carlos Alcaraz have met 1 time since 2026; Carlos Alcaraz leads 1–0. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 1 sets to Alcaraz's 2. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 72% | 18/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 17/53 | 30% | 9/30 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 16/33 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 0% | 0/2 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 12/22 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 95% | 21/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 82% | 18/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 0, Alcaraz 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex Michelsen.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 1, 2026
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Alcaraz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Carlos Alcaraz | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 65% | 13/20 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 11–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.81 | 1.15 |
| ROI % | -1.6% | +4.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.31u | +0.51u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Michelsen's 40%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 26 | W 76 64 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 46 | W 63 46 1311 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 76 64 64 | W 61 46 63 |
| Adam Walton | L 67 46 | W 63 76 62 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 75 63 | W 61 63 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | L 36 36 | W 67 63 62 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 67 | L 67 36 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 76 64 | W 64 64 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 67 | L 36 75 46 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 75 67 64 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–63 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 86% |
| Sets won | 60% | 78% |
| Games won | 53% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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