Alex Michelsen vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Brandon Nakashima have met 1 time since 2026; Alex Michelsen leads 1–0. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 3 sets to Nakashima's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex Michelsen won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 74% | 23/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 40% | 8/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 17/53 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 16/33 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 12/22 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 85% | 28/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 70% | 23/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 2, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 5 or more | 65% | 13/20 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 52% | 11/21 |
| 15 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 5% | 1/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 15–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.81 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -1.6% | +27.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.31u | +5.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Michelsen's 40%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 46 | L 36 64 67 67 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 75 67 76 | L 36 26 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 75 63 57 36 67 | L 57 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 76 64 64 | W 63 64 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 75 63 | W 62 61 60 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 46 | W 76 46 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 26 46 | W 67 76 61 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 67 76 64 36 36 | W 76 64 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | L 36 36 | W 76 57 75 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 63 64 | L 76 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–63 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 59% |
| Sets won | 60% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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