Alex de Minaur vs Reilly OpelkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Reilly Opelka have met 6 times since 2019; Alex de Minaur leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Sydney in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 4–1. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 10 sets to Opelka's 4. Their most recent meeting: Reilly Opelka won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Opelka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Reilly Opelka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 75% | 9/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 25% | 3/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 25% | 6/24 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 44% | 4/9 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 77% | 10/13 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 69% | 9/13 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Opelka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Opelka
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Reilly Opelka.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Aug 10, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 13, 2022
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 23, 2019
Basel
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 7, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Jul 24, 2019
Atlanta
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 9, 2019
Sydney
H Hard · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | - |
| ROI % | -16.4% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Opelka's 22%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 62 67 | L 76 67 67 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 46 46 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 46 46 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 36 67 75 64 46 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 36 46 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | W 67 62 76 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 67 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | W 76 67 63 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | L 46 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Federico Cina
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 24
Ethan Quinn
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 13
Taylor Fritz
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Taylor Fritz
Barcelona · Round of 64
Mar 22
Taylor Fritz
Tokyo · Round of 32
Mar 22
Jack Draper
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Nuno Borges
Miami Open - Miami · 1st Round
Mar 19
Ben Shelton
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 2nd Round
Mar 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 27–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 48% |
| Sets won | 62% | 51% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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