Lorenzo Musetti vs Reilly OpelkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Musetti and Reilly Opelka have met 4 times since 2021; Reilly Opelka leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2021 on clay. On hard courts Opelka leads 2–1. Across all meetings Musetti has taken 3 sets to Opelka's 8. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at U.S. Open - New York (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Musetti | Opelka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Musetti | Reilly Opelka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 75% | 9/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 4/17 | 25% | 3/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 12/46 | 25% | 6/24 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 20/34 | 44% | 4/9 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 30% | 3/10 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 26/29 | 77% | 10/13 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 69% | 9/13 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Musetti 0, Opelka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Opelka
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,749 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 26, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 12, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 2, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 11, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.62 | - |
| ROI % | -18.1% | - |
| Units P/L | -1.45u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Musetti | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Opelka's 0%).
| Opponent | Musetti | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | L 46 67 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 63 64 | L 63 57 16 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 62 75 64 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Federico Cina
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 24
Ethan Quinn
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 13
Taylor Fritz
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Taylor Fritz
Barcelona · Round of 64
Mar 22
Taylor Fritz
Tokyo · Round of 32
Mar 22
Jack Draper
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Nuno Borges
Miami Open - Miami · 1st Round
Mar 19
Ben Shelton
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 2nd Round
Mar 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 27–52 matches
| Metric | Musetti | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 48% |
| Sets won | 62% | 51% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Musetti | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Musetti | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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