Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-AliassimePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime have met 7 times since 2017; Felix Auger-Aliassime leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Drummondville in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Auger-Aliassime leads 4–1. On clay courts Minaur leads 2–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 7 sets to Auger-Aliassime's 11. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Auger-Aliassime | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Felix Auger-Aliassime | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 63% | 25/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 19% | 3/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 32% | 18/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 48% | 23/48 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 66% | 23/35 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 94% | 31/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 76% | 25/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Auger-Aliassime 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Auger-Aliassime
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Feb 15, 2026
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Final
Sep 3, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 13, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Nov 27, 2022
Davis Cup, Finals, F, CAN-AUS 2-0
H Hard · Rubber 2
Aug 17, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 11, 2018
Braga
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 13, 2017
Drummondville
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Auger-Aliassime | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Felix Auger-Aliassime | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 7–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.33 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -11.2% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -1.12u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Auger-Aliassime's 30%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | L | L 67 63 36 76 67 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | W 76 46 63 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | L 67 67 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 62 62 | L 36 36 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | W 64 76 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | L 46 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 36 46 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 36 67 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 63 75 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | W 57 61 76 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Pablo Carreno Busta
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Arthur Rinderknech
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CAN-FRA · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Quentin Halys
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CAN-FRA · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Karen Khachanov
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rinky Hijikata
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 68–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 68% |
| Sets won | 63% | 64% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 4 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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