Alex de Minaur vs Dominic ThiemPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Dominic Thiem have met 5 times since 2017; Dominic Thiem leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Thiem leads 3–0. On clay courts Thiem leads 2–0. Thiem has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 0 sets to Thiem's 13. Their most recent meeting: Dominic Thiem won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Thiem | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Dominic Thiem | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Thiem 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Thiem
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 6, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
May 3, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 16
Sep 10, 2020
US Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 9, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 29, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Thiem |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | - |
| ROI % | +8.6% | - |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Thiem |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | — |
| Route | GBR → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Luciano Darderi
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 22
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 26
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 23
Juan Pablo Varillas
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 15
Gael Monfils
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · 1st Round
Jun 24
Otto Virtanen
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 22
Franco Agamenone
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 20
Thanasi Kokkinakis
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 23
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 69–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Thiem |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | - |
| Sets won | 63% | - |
| Games won | 54% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Thiem |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 3 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Thiem |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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