Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Dominic Thiem and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Swiss Open - Gstaad in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Varillas leads 2–1. Across all meetings Thiem has taken 5 sets to Varillas's 4. Their most recent meeting: Juan Pablo Varillas won at EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Thiem | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dominic Thiem | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 62% | 24/39 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 30% | 8/27 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 35% | 23/66 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 25% | 5/20 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 75% | 12/16 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 52% | 14/27 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 89% | 33/37 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 65% | 24/37 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Thiem 2, Pablo Varillas 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Thiem
💥 Big Hitter
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 15, 2024
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad
C Clay · 1st Round
Sep 28, 2023
Astana Open - Astana
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 16, 2023
Argentina Open - Buenos Aires
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 22, 2022
Swiss Open - Gstaad
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 12–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.12 |
| ROI % | - | +32.2% |
| Units P/L | - | +5.79u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | ARG |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luciano Darderi
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 22
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 26
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 23
Juan Pablo Varillas
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 15
Gael Monfils
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · 1st Round
Jun 24
Otto Virtanen
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 22
Franco Agamenone
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 20
Thanasi Kokkinakis
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 23
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Murkel Dellien
Buenos Aires Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Tomas Farjat
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 5
Sep 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Genoa Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–66 matches
| Metric | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 59% |
| Sets won | - | 55% |
| Games won | - | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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