Dominic Thiem vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Dominic Thiem and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Gstaad in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Varillas leads 2–1. Across all meetings Thiem has taken 5 sets to Varillas's 4. Their most recent meeting: Juan Pablo Varillas won at Gstaad (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Thiem | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dominic Thiem | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 72% | 26/36 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 30% | 8/27 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 29% | 18/63 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 35% | 6/17 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 91% | 10/11 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 43% | 10/23 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 89% | 34/38 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 68% | 26/38 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Thiem 2, Pablo Varillas 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Thiem
🎯 Baseliner
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Dominic Thiem.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 15, 2024
Gstaad
C Clay · Round of 32
Sep 28, 2023
Astana
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 16, 2023
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Round of 16
Jul 22, 2022
Gstaad
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.21 |
| ROI % | - | +49.5% |
| Units P/L | - | +3.47u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 2 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | SMR |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luciano Darderi
Vienna · Round of 32
Oct 22
Ben Shelton
US Open · Round of 128
Aug 26
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Kitzbuhel · Round of 32
Jul 23
Juan Pablo Varillas
Gstaad · Round of 32
Jul 15
Gael Monfils
Mallorca · Round of 32
Jun 24
Otto Virtanen
Roland Garros · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 22
Franco Agamenone
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 20
Thanasi Kokkinakis
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 23
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Timofey Skatov
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Francesco Maestrelli
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jacopo Vasami
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Luis Carlos Alvarez
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Bruno Fernandez
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–63 matches
| Metric | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 57% |
| Sets won | - | 56% |
| Games won | - | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Thiem | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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