Alex de Minaur vs Casper RuudPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud have met 5 times since 2018; Casper Ruud leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Braga in 2018 on clay. On hard courts they are level 2–2. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 5 sets to Ruud's 6. Their most recent meeting: Casper Ruud won at United Cup - Australia (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Ruud | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Casper Ruud | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 77% | 23/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 23% | 3/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 23% | 10/43 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 85% | 23/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Ruud 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Ruud
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 3, 2026
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Round Robin
Mar 2, 2024
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Final
Jan 1, 2024
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 6, 2019
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
May 12, 2018
Braga
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Ruud | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Casper Ruud | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 80% | 4/5 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 20% | 1/5 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 20% | 1/5 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 2–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -48.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -2.44u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ruud has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Minaur's 70%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | W 61 76 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | W 67 76 76 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | W 61 63 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 46 64 | L 46 26 67 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 63 64 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 57 67 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | W 46 67 64 76 75 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | L 36 46 | W 63 62 64 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 61 61 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Joao Fonseca
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Jaime Faria
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Joao Fonseca
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
May 31
Tommy Paul
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Hamad Medjedovic
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 69% |
| Sets won | 62% | 64% |
| Games won | 54% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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