Alex de Minaur vs Casper RuudPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud have met 5 times since 2018; Casper Ruud leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Braga in 2018 on clay. On hard courts they are level 2–2. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 5 sets to Ruud's 6. Their most recent meeting: Casper Ruud won at United Cup - Australia (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Ruud | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Casper Ruud | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 77% | 24/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 15% | 2/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 20% | 9/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 56% | 20/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 50% | 11/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 93% | 25/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 89% | 24/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Ruud 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Ruud
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Casper Ruud.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 3, 2026
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Round Robin
Mar 2, 2024
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Final
Jan 1, 2024
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 6, 2019
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
May 12, 2018
Braga
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Ruud | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Casper Ruud | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 7–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.56 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +6.5% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +0.65u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Ruud's 60%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | L 46 26 67 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | W 61 76 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | L 57 26 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | L 67 36 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 67 64 108 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | W 67 76 76 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | W 61 63 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 63 64 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 57 67 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | W 46 67 64 76 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Learner Tien
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Bu Yunchaokete
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Luciano Darderi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Francisco Cerundolo
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Fnu Nidunjianzan
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Rigele Te
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 1
Sep 18
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Joao Fonseca
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 70% |
| Sets won | 63% | 64% |
| Games won | 54% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 2 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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