Alex de Minaur vs Alex MichelsenPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Alex Michelsen have met 3 times since 2024; Alex de Minaur leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos in 2024 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Minaur has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Michelsen's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Michelsen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Alex Michelsen | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 31% | 17/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 100% | 28/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 79% | 22/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Michelsen 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 20, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
May 28, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 21, 2024
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Michelsen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Alex Michelsen | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 78% | 14/18 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 56% | 10/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 17% | 3/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 12–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -11.2% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -1.91u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Michelsen's 60%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 36 46 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 75 67 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | W 63 64 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | W 67 76 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 64 76 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | W 64 75 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 16 76 810 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 67 76 64 36 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 46 46 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 64 62 | W 76 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Jesper de Jong
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Francisco Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Taylor Fritz
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Adrian Mannarino
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mackenzie McDonald
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 58% |
| Sets won | 62% | 56% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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