Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#26 · 27 yrs · R
Title6 meetings · sets 3–13
🇺🇸Tommy Paul
#18 · 29 yrs · R
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Tommy Paul have met 6 times since 2023; Tommy Paul leads 6–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 5–0. Paul has won the last 6 meetings. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 3 sets to Paul's 13. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at HSBC Championships - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 21/28 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 7/16 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 20/32 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 12/21 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 0, Paul 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 1,249 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jun 19, 2026
HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jan 23, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 19, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Sep 1, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 26, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 19, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 5/7 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–1 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +40.2% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.82u | +0.17u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 2 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Fokina's 70%).
| Opponent | Fokina | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 46 76 | W 75 46 76 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 61 63 | W 46 64 76 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | W 64 67 63 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 61 75 | W 61 62 61 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 26 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Learner Tien | L 64 16 67 | L 36 26 |
| Valentin Royer | W 46 61 64 | W 64 76 |
| Ethan Quinn | W 76 63 | W 61 63 |
| Adam Walton | W 64 75 | W 76 63 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 75 67 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Jenson Brooksby
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Matteo Berrettini
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Alexandre Muller
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–58 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 69% |
| Sets won | 63% | 64% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 4 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 5 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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