Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de MinaurPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#27 · 27 yrs · R
6w7 meetings · sets 9–10
🇦🇺Alex de Minaur
#7 · 27 yrs · R
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alex de Minaur have met 7 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Lisbon in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Fokina leads 2–1. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 9 sets to Minaur's 10. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Hamburg Open - Hamburg (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | de Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alex de Minaur | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 19/24 | 74% | 28/38 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 27% | 11/41 | 33% | 20/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 66% | 19/29 | 47% | 24/51 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 9/18 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 19/23 | 74% | 28/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 2, de Minaur 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 20, 2026
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 27, 2025
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Final
Aug 12, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 15, 2022
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Apr 12, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 6, 2019
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
May 8, 2018
Lisbon
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alex de Minaur | ||
| 1 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 78% | 14/18 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 50% | 9/18 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.33 |
| ROI % | +2.7% | -16.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.38u | -3.11u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | — | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Fokina and Minaur posted a 40% win rate.
| Opponent | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | L 67 46 | W 16 63 76 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 62 | L 75 67 16 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 67 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 76 67 36 76 16 | W 63 62 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 76 62 | W 62 57 62 64 |
| Tommy Paul | L 36 67 | L 62 36 36 |
| Denis Shapovalov | L 75 46 36 | W 64 61 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 62 46 62 | L 60 26 26 36 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 64 64 | L 64 67 46 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Marco Trungelliti
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Marton Fucsovics
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Fabian Marozsan
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ethan Quinn
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · Final
Jun 27
Fabian Marozsan
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · Semifinals
Jun 26
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–74 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 64% |
| Sets won | 60% | 62% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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