Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de MinaurPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#26 · 27 yrs · R
Title7 meetings · sets 9–10
🇦🇺Alex de Minaur
#9 · 27 yrs · R
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alex de Minaur have met 7 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Lisbon in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Fokina leads 2–1. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 9 sets to Minaur's 10. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Hamburg Open - Hamburg (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | de Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alex de Minaur | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 21/28 | 68% | 25/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 7/16 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 36% | 20/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 20/32 | 48% | 23/48 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 12/21 | 73% | 19/26 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 2, de Minaur 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 979 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 20, 2026
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 27, 2025
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · Final
Aug 12, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 15, 2022
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Apr 12, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 6, 2019
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
May 8, 2018
Lisbon
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alex de Minaur | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 5/7 | 47% | 8/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 12% | 2/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–1 | 14–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.58 |
| ROI % | +40.2% | +8.6% |
| Units P/L | +2.82u | +1.64u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Fokina's 40%).
| Opponent | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 46 76 | W 63 64 75 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | W |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 46 | W 16 62 63 |
| Quentin Halys | L 67 46 | W 36 76 75 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 61 67 46 | W 61 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 26 46 | W 26 76 119 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 62 | L 75 67 16 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 67 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 76 67 36 76 16 | W 63 62 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 76 62 | W 62 57 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Jenson Brooksby
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Matteo Berrettini
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Alexandre Muller
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–69 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 67% |
| Sets won | 63% | 63% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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