Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de MinaurPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

๐ช๐ธAlejandro Davidovich Fokina
#27 ยท 27 yrs ยท R
6w7 meetings ยท sets 9โ10

๐ฆ๐บAlex de Minaur
#7 ยท 27 yrs ยท R
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alex de Minaur have met 7 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4โ3. Their first meeting came at Lisbon in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Fokina leads 2โ1. On hard courts Minaur leads 3โ0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1โ0. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 9 sets to Minaur's 10. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Hamburg Open - Hamburg (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches ยท Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | de Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alex de Minaur | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 19/24 | 74% | 28/38 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 27% | 11/41 | 33% | 20/61 |
| Covers โ1.5 sets as favorite | 66% | 19/29 | 47% | 24/51 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 9/18 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 19/23 | 74% | 28/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 2, de Minaur 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
๐ฏ Baseliner
Minaur
๐ช Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The ๐ฏ Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs ๐ช Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 20, 2026
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay ยท 2nd Round
Jul 27, 2025
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard ยท Final
Aug 12, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard ยท Semifinals
Jun 15, 2022
cinch Championships - London
G Grass ยท 2nd Round
Apr 12, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay ยท 1st Round
Nov 6, 2019
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard ยท Round Robin
May 8, 2018
Lisbon
C Clay ยท Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets ยท Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Minaur | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alex de Minaur | ||
| 1 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 78% | 14/18 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 50% | 9/18 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches ยท Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10โ4 | 13โ6 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.33 |
| ROI % | +2.7% | -16.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.38u | -3.11u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | โ | 2 |
| Events | โ | 3 |
| Matches | โ | 6 |
| Distance | โ | 1,200 mi ยท 1,932 km |
| Route | โ | USA โ CAN โ USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced ยท Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Fokina and Minaur posted a 40% win rate.
| Opponent | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | L 67 46 | W 16 63 76 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 62 | L 75 67 16 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 67 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 76 67 36 76 16 | W 63 62 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 76 62 | W 62 57 62 64 |
| Tommy Paul | L 36 67 | L 62 36 36 |
| Denis Shapovalov | L 75 46 36 | W 64 61 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 62 46 62 | L 60 26 26 36 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 64 64 | L 64 67 46 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag ยท Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Marco Trungelliti
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag ยท 2nd Round
Jul 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Wimbledon - London ยท 4th Round
Jul 5
Marton Fucsovics
Wimbledon - London ยท 3rd Round
Jul 3
Fabian Marozsan
Wimbledon - London ยท 2nd Round
Jul 1
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Wimbledon - London ยท 1st Round
Jun 29
Ethan Quinn
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca ยท Final
Jun 27
Fabian Marozsan
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca ยท Semifinals
Jun 26
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati ยท 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati ยท 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati ยท 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal ยท 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal ยท 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington ยท Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington ยท 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington ยท 1st Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won ยท Last 12 months ยท 49โ74 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 64% |
| Sets won | 60% | 62% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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