Sebastian Baez vs Tomas MachacPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Sebastian Baez and Tomas Machac have met 3 times since 2025; Tomas Machac leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo in 2025 on clay. On clay courts Machac leads 2–0. Machac has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Baez has taken 2 sets to Machac's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tomas Machac won at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Baez | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Sebastian Baez | Tomas Machac | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 27/35 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 7/28 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 15/63 | 44% | 16/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 17/28 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 17/31 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 30/36 | 94% | 15/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 27/36 | 75% | 12/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Baez 0, Machac 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎾 All-Court vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 745 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Nov 1, 2026
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 3rd Round Qualifying
Apr 14, 2026
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 8, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Baez | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Sebastian Baez | Tomas Machac | ||
| 1 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 35% | 6/17 | 84% | 16/19 |
| 5 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 58% | 11/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 11% | 2/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 5% | 1/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baez | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–10 | 9–10 |
| Avg odds | 2.74 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -32.6% | -31.3% |
| Units P/L | -5.21u | -5.94u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Baez | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 4 |
| Events | 4 | 4 |
| Matches | 6 | 9 |
| Distance | 6,243 mi · 10,047 km | 6,060 mi · 9,752 km |
| Route | CHN → FRA → SUI → FRA | CHN → KAZ → AUT → FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Baez and Machac posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Baez | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 16 26 | L 46 67 |
| Alex Molcan | W 64 62 | L 36 26 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 36 16 | W 76 67 64 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | W 16 63 64 | W 64 64 63 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | L 75 57 57 | L 36 26 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 63 36 26 | W 64 64 63 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 26 | L 46 36 |
| Emilio Nava | W 46 75 63 | W 26 64 61 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 61 | L 46 76 26 |
| Jaume Munar | W 64 64 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 1st Round
Nov 2
Tomas Machac
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 3rd Round Qualifying
Nov 1
Damir Dzumhur
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 31
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 24
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 1st Round
Oct 20
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Arthur Fils
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 2nd Round
Nov 4
Kyrian Jacquet
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 1st Round
Nov 2
Sebastian Baez
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 3rd Round Qualifying
Nov 1
Martin Landaluce
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 31
Alex de Minaur
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 26
Corentin Moutet
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 24
Karen Khachanov
Almaty Open - Almaty · 2nd Round
Oct 22
Zangar Nurlanuly
Almaty Open - Almaty · 1st Round
Oct 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–68 matches
| Metric | Baez | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 55% |
| Sets won | 52% | 54% |
| Games won | 49% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Baez | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Baez | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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