Marin Cilic vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Marin Cilic and Tommy Paul have met 3 times since 2021; Marin Cilic leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Kremlin Cup - Moscow in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Cilic leads 2–1. Across all meetings Cilic has taken 4 sets to Paul's 3. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cilic | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marin Cilic | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 12/17 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 5/17 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 10/34 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 65% | 11/17 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 7/15 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 7/18 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 12/16 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cilic 1, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 11, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 13, 2022
Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 20, 2021
Kremlin Cup - Moscow
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cilic | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marin Cilic | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 4/4 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cilic | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–3 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.25u | +0.17u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cilic | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Cilic's 40%).
| Opponent | Cilic | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | L 26 75 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Learner Tien | W 75 76 | L 36 26 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 75 26 26 | W 75 46 76 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 57 36 | W 63 63 |
| Zachary Svajda | L 67 46 | W 75 63 |
| Casper Ruud | L 46 46 63 57 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 26 36 | W 62 75 |
| Ethan Quinn | W 76 63 | W 61 63 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 46 63 64 | W 61 62 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 | W 62 26 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Frances Tiafoe
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Sho Shimabukuro
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Daniil Medvedev
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–58 matches
| Metric | Cilic | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 69% |
| Sets won | 49% | 64% |
| Games won | 50% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cilic | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cilic | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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