Marin Cilic vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 8 times since 2016; Marin Cilic leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at Basel in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Cilic leads 4–1. On clay courts Cilic leads 2–1. Cilic has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Cilic has taken 15 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Marin Cilic won at Girona Challenger (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cilic | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marin Cilic | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 13/18 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 5/17 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 10/35 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 65% | 11/17 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 7/18 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cilic 4, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Marin Cilic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Mar 28, 2025
Girona Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Nov 23, 2022
Davis Cup, Finals, QF, CRO-ESP 2-0
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jul 27, 2021
Tokyo Olympics
C Clay · Round of 32
Jul 26, 2021
Olympics - Tokyo
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 13, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 14, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jan 15, 2018
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 17, 2016
Basel
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cilic | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marin Cilic | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 4/4 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–3 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.25u | -1.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Cilic's 40%).
| Opponent | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 67 36 | L 36 64 16 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 16 26 46 | L 46 26 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 | W 63 64 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 67 64 75 | W 63 76 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 46 46 | W 62 36 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Frances Tiafoe
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Sho Shimabukuro
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Daniil Medvedev
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 40–58 matches
| Metric | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 62% |
| Sets won | 50% | 58% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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