Carlos Alcaraz vs Marin CilicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Marin Cilic have met 5 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril in 2021 on clay. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 4–0. Alcaraz has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 10 sets to Cilic's 4. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Cilic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Marin Cilic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 29% | 10/34 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 81% | 13/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 75% | 12/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 3, Cilic 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,511 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 17, 2025
Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 5, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 18, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 28, 2022
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 27, 2021
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Cilic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Marin Cilic | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 1–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 2.27 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -2.25u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (88% vs Cilic's 25%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Shapovalov | W | W 67 64 75 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 46 1311 | L 67 67 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 16 26 46 |
| Otto Virtanen | W 64 62 | L 57 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 62 64 | L 67 36 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 64 76 67 67 75 | L 26 75 46 |
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 46 46 63 57 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Frances Tiafoe
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Sho Shimabukuro
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Daniil Medvedev
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–42 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 49% |
| Sets won | 78% | 49% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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