Alex de Minaur vs Marin CilicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Marin Cilic have met 5 times since 2018; Marin Cilic leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Cilic leads 3–1. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 8 sets to Cilic's 8. Their most recent meeting: Marin Cilic won at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Cilic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Marin Cilic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 25% | 5/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 26% | 10/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 83% | 15/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 78% | 14/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Cilic 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Marin Cilic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 25, 2025
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 25, 2022
Davis Cup, Finals, SF, AUS-CRO 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 2
Nov 25, 2021
Davis Cup, Finals, Group D
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jun 18, 2021
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Sep 1, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Cilic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Marin Cilic | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.30 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -34.5% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -2.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Cilic's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 75 26 26 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | W 26 64 76 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | L 67 46 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 63 62 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 46 | L 16 26 46 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 67 64 75 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 57 36 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | W 36 76 63 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 62 75 | W 46 63 64 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | L 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Frances Tiafoe
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Sho Shimabukuro
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Daniil Medvedev
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Nuno Borges
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Denis Shapovalov
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 8
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 48% |
| Sets won | 62% | 48% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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