Alex de Minaur vs Marin CilicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Marin Cilic have met 5 times since 2018; Marin Cilic leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Cilic leads 3–1. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 8 sets to Cilic's 8. Their most recent meeting: Marin Cilic won at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Cilic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Marin Cilic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 72% | 13/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 29% | 10/35 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 82% | 14/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 76% | 13/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Cilic 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Marin Cilic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 25, 2025
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 25, 2022
Davis Cup, Finals, SF, AUS-CRO 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 2
Nov 25, 2021
Davis Cup, Finals, Group D
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jun 18, 2021
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Sep 1, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Cilic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Marin Cilic | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 1–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.27 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -2.25u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Cilic's 30%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | L 67 16 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 26 75 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 75 26 26 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | W 26 64 76 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | L 67 46 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 63 62 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 67 64 75 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 57 36 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | L 67 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 67 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Frances Tiafoe
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Sho Shimabukuro
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Daniil Medvedev
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 40–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 50% |
| Sets won | 63% | 50% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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