Mackenzie McDonald vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Tommy Paul have met 3 times since 2020; Tommy Paul leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 3–0. Paul has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 1 sets to Paul's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Rakuten Japan Open - Tokyo (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 0, Paul 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tommy Paul.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 18, 2023
Rakuten Japan Open - Tokyo
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 2, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 24, 2020
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | POR | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs McDonald's 11%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | L 16 36 | W 76 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 67 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 26 36 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | L 76 67 36 | W 67 76 76 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 26 06 | L 57 46 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 64 62 | W 46 64 76 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 46 67 | L 75 46 46 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 46 57 | L 46 36 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 62 16 26 | W 64 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–58 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 69% |
| Sets won | 43% | 64% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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