Mackenzie McDonald vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mackenzie McDonald and Tommy Paul have met 3 times since 2020; Tommy Paul leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 3–0. Paul has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 1 sets to Paul's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Rakuten Japan Open - Tokyo (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 17/25 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 6/25 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 14/50 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 15/30 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 29% | 5/17 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 41% | 7/17 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 17/23 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 0, Paul 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tommy Paul.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 18, 2023
Rakuten Japan Open - Tokyo
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 2, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 24, 2020
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | McDonald | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mackenzie McDonald | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -24.7% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.72u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs McDonald's 20%).
| Opponent | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | L 16 36 | W 76 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 64 36 63 | W 76 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 67 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 26 36 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | L 76 67 36 | W 67 76 76 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 26 06 | L 57 46 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 64 62 | W 46 64 76 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 46 67 | L 75 46 46 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 46 57 | L 46 36 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 62 16 26 | W 64 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–53 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 69% |
| Sets won | 48% | 64% |
| Games won | 50% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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