Alex Bolt vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Bolt and Mackenzie McDonald have met 8 times since 2017; Alex Bolt leads 5–3. Their first meeting came at Nottingham in 2017 on grass. On grass courts Bolt leads 3–2. On hard courts Bolt leads 2–1. Bolt has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Bolt has taken 10 sets to McDonald's 9. Their most recent meeting: Alex Bolt won at Jingshan Challenger (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bolt | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Bolt | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 11/26 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 19/58 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 18/34 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 20/30 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 27/32 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 24/32 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bolt 2, McDonald 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bolt
🤖 Servebot
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 720 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex Bolt.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Sep 27, 2025
Jingshan Challenger
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 3, 2025
Birmingham Challenger
G Grass · 1st Round
Jan 6, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 4, 2024
Surbiton Challenger
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 19, 2021
Nottingham 2 Challenger
G Grass · Semifinals
Feb 3, 2021
Murray River Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 9, 2018
's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Round of 16
Jun 1, 2017
Nottingham
G Grass · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bolt | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Bolt | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bolt | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.39 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -10.4% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.15u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bolt | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 8 | 1 |
| Distance | 927 mi · 1,492 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Bolt has a higher win rate against shared opponents (17% vs McDonald's 0%).
| Opponent | Bolt | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harris | L 57 46 | L 46 26 |
| Yibing Wu | W 76 62 | L 67 61 57 |
| Adam Walton | L 26 63 67 | L 16 36 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 36 | L 36 67 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | L 76 06 36 | L 76 67 36 |
| Elias Ymer | L 67 67 | L 67 64 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lloyd Harris
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Lloyd Harris
Jingshan Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 3
Dane Sweeny
Jingshan Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Evan Zhu
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Semen Pankin
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Akira Santillan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Omar Jasika
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–58 matches
| Metric | Bolt | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 41% |
| Sets won | 56% | 43% |
| Games won | 51% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bolt | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 4 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bolt | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 3 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.