Alex Bolt vs Hiroki MoriyaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Bolt and Hiroki Moriya have met 5 times since 2015; Alex Bolt leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at Ilkley in 2015 on grass. On hard courts Bolt leads 4–0. Bolt has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Bolt has taken 10 sets to Moriya's 3. Their most recent meeting: Alex Bolt won at Brisbane 2 Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bolt | Moriya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Bolt | Hiroki Moriya | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 53% | 17/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 11/26 | 26% | 9/34 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 19/58 | 36% | 24/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 18/34 | 31% | 9/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 20/30 | 36% | 10/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 27/32 | 88% | 23/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 24/32 | 65% | 17/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bolt 2, Moriya 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bolt
🤖 Servebot
Moriya
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex Bolt.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 14, 2026
Brisbane 2 Challenger
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 13, 2024
Kobe Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 2, 2024
Burnie 1 Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 31, 2019
Playford 2
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 8, 2015
Ilkley
G Grass · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bolt | Moriya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Bolt | Hiroki Moriya | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 46% | 6/13 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bolt | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.39 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | -10.4% | -22.1% |
| Units P/L | -1.15u | -2.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bolt | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 3 |
| Distance | 927 mi · 1,492 km | 1,420 mi · 2,285 km |
| Route | CHN | VIE → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Bolt has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Moriya's 50%).
| Opponent | Bolt | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Keegan Smith | L 46 46 | W 36 76 63 |
| Dane Sweeny | W 63 76 | W 75 76 |
| Omar Jasika | W 64 63 | L 46 46 |
| Yuta Shimizu | W 63 64 | L 75 57 67 |
| Tung-Lin Wu | W 46 64 76 | L 26 26 |
| James McCabe | W 76 76 | L 46 36 |
| Alex Rybakov | W 57 62 64 | W |
| Jamie Mackenzie | W 46 61 76 | W 46 64 64 |
| Philip Sekulic | W 62 61 | W 64 76 |
| Rio Noguchi | W 76 76 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lloyd Harris
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Lloyd Harris
Jingshan Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 3
Dane Sweeny
Jingshan Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Evan Zhu
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Semen Pankin
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Akira Santillan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Omar Jasika
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Keisuke Saitoh
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Keegan Smith
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Omar Jasika
Jingshan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Jia Qi Huang
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Blake Ellis
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Yuta Shimizu
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Maximus Jones
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Dominik Palan
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–66 matches
| Metric | Bolt | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 48% |
| Sets won | 56% | 47% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bolt | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 5 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bolt | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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