Alex Bolt vs Sho ShimabukuroPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Bolt and Sho Shimabukuro have met 4 times since 2023; Sho Shimabukuro leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Tunis in 2023 on clay. On hard courts Shimabukuro leads 3–0. Shimabukuro has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Bolt has taken 3 sets to Shimabukuro's 8. Their most recent meeting: Sho Shimabukuro won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bolt | Shimabukuro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Bolt | Sho Shimabukuro | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 67% | 29/43 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 11/26 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 19/58 | 35% | 25/72 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 18/34 | 51% | 21/41 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 20/30 | 65% | 15/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 27/32 | 86% | 38/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 24/32 | 66% | 29/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bolt 0, Shimabukuro 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bolt
🤖 Servebot
Shimabukuro
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Alex Bolt and Sho Shimabukuro are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,464 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 16, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 1, 2026
Miami Open presented by Itau
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 29, 2025
Guangzhou Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
May 14, 2023
Tunis
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bolt | Shimabukuro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Bolt | Sho Shimabukuro | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 10 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bolt | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 4–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.39 | 2.31 |
| ROI % | -10.4% | -58.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.15u | -7.58u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bolt | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 8 | 3 |
| Distance | 927 mi · 1,492 km | 2,283 mi · 3,674 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Shimabukuro has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Bolt's 50%).
| Opponent | Bolt | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Omar Jasika | W 64 63 | W 63 57 76 |
| Keegan Smith | L 46 46 | L 75 06 36 |
| Elias Ymer | L 67 67 | W 63 63 |
| Adam Walton | L 26 63 67 | W 63 64 |
| Yuta Shimizu | W 63 64 | W 63 60 |
| Ilia Simakin | L 67 63 16 | W 63 63 |
| Rio Noguchi | W 76 76 | W 64 63 |
| Yibing Wu | W 76 62 | L 36 67 |
| Kokoro Isomura | W 75 63 | W 76 64 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 36 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lloyd Harris
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Lloyd Harris
Jingshan Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 3
Dane Sweeny
Jingshan Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Evan Zhu
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Semen Pankin
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Akira Santillan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Omar Jasika
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Miomir Kecmanovic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Anton Shepp
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NZL-JPN 1-3 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
James Watt
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NZL-JPN 1-3 · Rubber 2
Sep 19
Arthur Rinderknech
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Miomir Kecmanovic
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 23
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–74 matches
| Metric | Bolt | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 58% |
| Sets won | 56% | 56% |
| Games won | 51% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bolt | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bolt | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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