Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Sonego and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2021; Tommy Paul leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 2–1. Paul has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sonego has taken 3 sets to Paul's 8. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sonego | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Sonego | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 10/16 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 8/21 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 14/37 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 8/18 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 8/16 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 10/19 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sonego 1, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 27, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 27, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 18, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 3, 2021
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sonego | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Sonego | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 39% | 5/13 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–9 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -46.9% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -6.09u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Sonego's 30%).
| Opponent | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 57 26 | L 57 67 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 75 57 26 | W 46 64 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 63 76 57 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 61 76 | W 62 26 64 |
| Flavio Cobolli | W 26 63 75 | L 62 36 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 36 46 | W 75 46 76 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 67 67 | W 62 36 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 64 36 46 67 | W 64 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 64 64 67 76 | W 67 76 76 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 62 67 46 | L 75 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–58 matches
| Metric | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 69% |
| Sets won | 46% | 64% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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