Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Sonego and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2021; Tommy Paul leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 2–1. Paul has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sonego has taken 3 sets to Paul's 8. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sonego | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Sonego | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 9/16 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 6/20 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 13/36 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 7/18 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 8/18 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 12/17 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 9/17 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sonego 1, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 27, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 27, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 18, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 3, 2021
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sonego | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Sonego | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 5/15 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–8 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -18.3% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.92u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Sonego's 20%).
| Opponent | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | W 61 76 | W 62 26 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 36 | W 46 76 64 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 36 46 | W 75 46 76 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 67 67 | W 62 36 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 64 36 46 67 | W 64 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 64 64 67 76 | W 67 76 76 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 62 67 46 | L 75 46 46 |
| Ugo Humbert | L 76 06 36 | W 63 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 67 46 | W 63 76 |
| Ignacio Buse | L 36 36 | L 67 64 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Juncheng Shang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Raphael Collignon
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Joel Schwaerzler
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–51 matches
| Metric | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 69% |
| Sets won | 46% | 64% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sonego | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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