Karolina Muchova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wKarolina Muchova and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2019; Madison Keys leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Beijing in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Muchova has taken 1 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Muchova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karolina Muchova | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 27/41 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 4/13 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 18/54 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 20/38 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 100% | 8/8 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 33/35 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 27/35 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Muchova 0, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Muchova
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 18, 2026
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin
G Grass · 2nd Round
Aug 3, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 2, 2019
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Muchova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karolina Muchova | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.27 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -10.1% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.71u | -2.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Muchova and Keys posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 36 06 | L 36 61 46 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 46 64 62 | L 63 46 46 |
| Anna Bondar | W 75 62 | W 57 64 76 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 60 63 | W 61 62 |
| Linda Noskova | L 26 75 36 | L 46 67 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 63 62 | W 64 61 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 64 64 | W 60 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 62 16 26 | L 36 63 06 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 75 76 | W 63 57 75 |
| Belinda Bencic | L 63 57 57 | W 46 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Naomi Osaka
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Liudmila Samsonova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Katie Boulter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Katie Boulter
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sinja Kraus
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–54 matches
| Metric | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 76% | 68% |
| Sets won | 68% | 65% |
| Games won | 55% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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