Karolina Muchova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7w3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Karolina Muchova and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2019; Madison Keys leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Beijing in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Muchova has taken 1 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Muchova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karolina Muchova | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 25/40 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 5/13 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 20/53 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 18/34 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 6/9 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 31/34 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Muchova 0, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Muchova
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Karolina Muchova and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 18, 2026
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin
G Grass · 2nd Round
Aug 3, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 2, 2019
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Muchova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karolina Muchova | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 6/12 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–2 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | +16.3% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.63u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Muchova's 60%).
| Opponent | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Marta Kostyuk | W 26 62 64 | L 36 16 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 60 63 | W 61 62 |
| Linda Noskova | L 26 75 36 | L 46 67 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 61 26 46 | W 36 62 63 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 63 62 | W 64 61 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 64 64 | W 60 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 62 16 26 | L 36 63 06 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 75 76 | W 63 57 75 |
| Belinda Bencic | L 63 57 57 | W 46 63 62 |
| Anna Bondar | W 75 62 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Coco Gauff
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Barbora Krejcikova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Shuai Zhang
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Anastasia Zakharova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · Semifinals
Jun 26
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–53 matches
| Metric | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 68% |
| Sets won | 67% | 65% |
| Games won | 55% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Muchova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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