Iga Swiatek vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇵🇱Iga Swiatek
#8 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 11–5
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys have met 7 times since 2021; Iga Swiatek leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2021 on clay. On hard courts they are level 2–2. On clay courts Swiatek leads 3–0. Swiatek has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Swiatek has taken 11 sets to Keys's 5. Their most recent meeting: Iga Swiatek won at WTA Finals - Riyadh (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Swiatek | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Iga Swiatek | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 35/44 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 65% | 11/17 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 34/59 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/1 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 75% | 6/8 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 39/45 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 35/45 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Swiatek 4, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Swiatek
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Nov 1, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 30, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jan 23, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Semifinals
May 2, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Semifinals
Aug 18, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 16, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 12, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Swiatek | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Iga Swiatek | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–3 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.24 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -6.7% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.87u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Swiatek has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Keys's 60%).
| Opponent | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula | L 57 64 46 | L 67 67 |
| Sara Bejlek | W 60 63 | L 63 46 67 |
| Diane Parry | W 63 63 | W 64 63 |
| Daria Snigur | W 61 62 | W 46 63 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 62 61 | L 36 63 06 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 36 61 62 | L 36 16 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 76 46 26 | W 36 62 63 |
| Karolina Pliskova | W 61 63 | W 63 63 |
| Kayla Day | W 60 76 | W 67 64 63 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 62 60 | W 64 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Diane Parry
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Maria Sakkari
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Emiliana Arango
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Viktorija Golubic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–61 matches
| Metric | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 68% |
| Sets won | 70% | 65% |
| Games won | 60% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 4 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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