Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 14–5
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wAryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys have met 8 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at Cincinnati in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 5–1. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 14 sets to Keys's 5. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 38% | 3/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 5, Keys 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Jan 9, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 14, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 25, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Oct 2, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 4th Round
Sep 7, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 12, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jun 16, 2021
Betti Open - Berlin
G Grass · 2nd Round
Aug 17, 2018
Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 46 36 | L 36 61 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 67 67 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 46 67 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 61 67 57 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 63 46 67 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 64 64 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 36 16 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | W 36 62 63 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 63 61 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 60 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 68% |
| Sets won | 79% | 65% |
| Games won | 59% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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