Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 14–5
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys have met 8 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at Cincinnati in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 5–1. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 14 sets to Keys's 5. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 38% | 3/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 5, Keys 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Jan 9, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 14, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 25, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Final
Oct 2, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 4th Round
Sep 7, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 12, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jun 16, 2021
Betti Open - Berlin
G Grass · 2nd Round
Aug 17, 2018
Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 63 46 67 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 64 64 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 36 16 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | L 63 46 46 |
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | L 46 67 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | W 36 62 63 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 63 61 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 60 61 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 67 67 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 26 76 64 | L 36 61 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 68% |
| Sets won | 79% | 65% |
| Games won | 59% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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