🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 14–5
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#19 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys have met 8 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 6–2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Brisbane (2026).
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit — across 7,186 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
8 career meetings, newest first
Jan 4, 2026
Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 5, 2025
Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 13, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Final
Sep 25, 2024
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 28, 2023
Us Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 3, 2023
Wimbledon
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jun 14, 2021
Berlin
G Grass · Round of 16
Aug 13, 2018
Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 100% | 6/6 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 67% | 4/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/6 |
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–4 | 12–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 2.14 |
| ROI % | -19.9% | +79.6% |
| Units P/L | -3.19u | +11.94u |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Keys's 50%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | W |
| Diana Shnaider | L | L |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | W |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | W 46 64 62 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 64 26 46 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | W 26 63 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 76 46 26 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 64 26 63 | L 36 46 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | L 64 36 26 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 46 62 64 | W 62 61 |
Last five matches per player
Diana Shnaider
French Open ·
Jun 3
Naomi Osaka
French Open ·
Jun 1
Daria Kasatkina
French Open ·
May 30
Elsa Jacquemot
French Open ·
May 28
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
French Open ·
May 26
Daria Kasatkina
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 25
Elsa Jacquemot
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 25
Karolina Muchova
Berlin ·
Jun 18
Diana Shnaider
French Open ·
Jun 1
Victoria Mboko
French Open ·
May 30
Antonia Ruzic
French Open ·
May 28
Hanne Vandewinkel
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Hanne Vandewinkel
French Open ·
May 26
Diana Shnaider
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 25
Hanne Vandewinkel
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 25
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–61 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 87% | 62% |
| Sets won | 82% | 60% |
| Games won | 60% | 53% |
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 0 |
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
