Jasmine Paolini vs Leylah FernandezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8w4 meetings · sets 4–4
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#32 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Leylah Fernandez have met 4 times since 2021; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Fernandez leads 2–1. Paolini has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 4 sets to Fernandez's 4. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 14/26 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 31% | 8/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 17/45 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 12/33 | 48% | 16/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 6/12 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 3/8 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 75% | 21/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 14/21 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 2, Fernandez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Fernandez
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 24, 2025
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 20, 2024
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 12, 2023
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jan 6, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paolini | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jasmine Paolini | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| 1 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 55% | 6/11 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–2 | 4–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.18 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | +35.3% | -8.7% |
| Units P/L | +2.12u | -0.87u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paolini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Fernandez's 60%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | L 26 67 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | W 76 64 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 46 76 64 | L 36 46 |
| Katie Boulter | W 06 63 63 | W 67 63 63 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 26 26 | L 46 67 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | L 16 26 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | W 64 36 64 |
| Leolia Jeanjean | W 67 62 64 | W 61 75 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 57 36 | W 62 75 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | W 36 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Renata Zarazua
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Magda Linette
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Xi Yao Wang
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 2nd Round
Jun 23
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–51 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 49% |
| Sets won | 53% | 49% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.