Jasmine Paolini vs Leylah FernandezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 4–4
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#25 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
TitleJasmine Paolini and Leylah Fernandez have met 4 times since 2021; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Fernandez leads 2–1. Paolini has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 4 sets to Fernandez's 4. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 10/20 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 31% | 8/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 15/39 | 31% | 18/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 10/30 | 50% | 20/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 14% | 1/7 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 79% | 27/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 10/18 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 2, Fernandez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Fernandez
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 728 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 24, 2025
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 20, 2024
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 12, 2023
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jan 6, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -36.5% | +32.2% |
| Units P/L | -1.46u | +5.15u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 1 | 7 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km |
| Route | ROU | SGP → ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Paolini and Fernandez posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Talia Gibson | L 57 62 16 | W 75 60 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 36 | W 64 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 26 36 | L 61 46 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | L 26 67 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | W 76 64 |
| Katie Boulter | W 06 63 63 | W 67 63 63 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 26 26 | L 46 67 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | L 16 26 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | W 64 36 64 |
| Leolia Jeanjean | W 67 62 64 | W 61 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Kamilla Rakhimova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Final
Sep 27
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Semifinals
Sep 26
Mirra Andreeva
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Alycia Parks
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Kyoka Okamura
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–58 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 55% |
| Sets won | 48% | 54% |
| Games won | 50% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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