Holger Rune vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Holger Rune and Matteo Berrettini have met 4 times since 2022; Holger Rune leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Rune leads 3–1. Rune has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Rune has taken 8 sets to Berrettini's 5. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rune | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Holger Rune | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 6/8 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 2/4 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 4/12 | 28% | 11/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 6/12 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 60% | 6/10 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 17% | 1/6 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 7/8 | 89% | 17/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 6/8 | 79% | 15/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rune 0, Berrettini 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rune
🎯 Baseliner
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,749 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 16, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 7, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 14, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 13, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 3–3 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.89 |
| ROI % | - | -6.2% |
| Units P/L | - | -0.37u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rune has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Berrettini's 50%).
| Opponent | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Marton Fucsovics | W 64 64 | W 67 75 61 62 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 62 67 46 | L 67 46 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 75 63 | W 63 64 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 64 | L 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Ugo Humbert
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Jenson Brooksby
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Sep 28
Ethan Quinn
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Sep 27
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Arthur Fils
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Stan Wawrinka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–48 matches
| Metric | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 56% |
| Sets won | 64% | 56% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rune | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
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