Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2024; Matteo Arnaldi leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2024 on grass. On clay courts Arnaldi leads 2–0. Arnaldi has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 5 sets to Arnaldi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 6/16 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 19/46 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 13/26 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 13/20 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 17/27 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 0, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Frances Tiafoe.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 30, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Jul 1, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 5 or more | 58% | 11/19 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 10 or more | 11% | 2/19 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–4 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.92 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | +37.9% | -50.4% |
| Units P/L | +7.20u | -3.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Tiafoe and Arnaldi posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 67 76 64 67 64 | W 64 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 46 57 | W 46 76 64 |
| Nuno Borges | W 64 64 | W 63 67 76 |
| Arthur Cazaux | W 76 61 | L 46 63 57 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 36 46 | L 46 46 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 36 76 | W 75 64 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 76 26 16 | L 76 46 46 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 63 16 57 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 23
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Lorenzo Musetti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Felix Auger Aliassime
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Lorenzo Sonego
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Marin Cilic
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–56 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 50% |
| Sets won | 59% | 49% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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