Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2024; Matteo Arnaldi leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2024 on grass. On clay courts Arnaldi leads 2–0. Arnaldi has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 5 sets to Arnaldi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 20/33 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 5/14 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 18/47 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 15/28 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 96% | 27/28 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 20/28 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 0, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 30, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Jul 1, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 89% | 16/18 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.04 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | +4.21u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Arnaldi's 56%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | L 57 46 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 64 64 | L 76 46 46 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 63 76 75 | W 26 64 64 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | W 76 75 | L |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 67 76 64 67 64 | W 64 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 46 57 | W 46 76 64 |
| Nuno Borges | W 64 64 | W 63 67 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 36 46 | L 46 46 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 36 76 | W 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–63 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 52% |
| Sets won | 63% | 50% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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