Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti have met 8 times since 2021; they are level 4–4. Their first meeting came at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Musetti leads 3–1. On hard courts Auger-Aliassime leads 3–1. Across all meetings Auger-Aliassime has taken 11 sets to Musetti's 9. Their most recent meeting: Felix Auger-Aliassime won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Felix Auger-Aliassime | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 26/37 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 20% | 3/15 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 27% | 14/52 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 24/44 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 20/32 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 30/32 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Auger-Aliassime 3, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Auger-Aliassime
🤖 Servebot
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,749 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Oct 8, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 4th Round
Mar 23, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 3, 2024
Olympics - Paris
C Clay · Olympic Bronze
Nov 26, 2022
Davis Cup, Finals, SF, ITA-CAN 1-2
H Hard · Rubber 2
Oct 15, 2022
Firenze Open - Florence
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 13, 2022
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 18, 2021
Open Parc - Lyon
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 21, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Felix Auger-Aliassime | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 67% | 8/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–4 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -9.3% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | -1.12u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 7 |
| Distance | — | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | — | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Auger-Aliassime has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Musetti's 60%).
| Opponent | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | L 63 36 67 | L 67 57 |
| Michael Zheng | W 76 62 61 | W 61 63 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 46 64 46 61 76 | W 64 62 |
| Novak Djokovic | L 67 63 36 76 67 | L 64 36 57 |
| Dino Prizmic | W 76 63 75 | W 75 36 62 |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | W 63 61 64 | W 63 61 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 64 | L 57 16 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 64 46 46 46 | W 63 62 20 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 63 75 61 | L 36 62 67 |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | W 64 64 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Novak Djokovic
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Michael Zheng
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Dino Prizmic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Frances Tiafoe
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Learner Tien
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Nuno Borges
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 1st Round
Jun 15
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–66 matches
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 73% | 65% |
| Sets won | 66% | 62% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
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