Elise Mertens vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#24 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 8–3
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
Elise Mertens and Jessica Pegula have met 5 times since 2020; Elise Mertens leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - New York in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Mertens leads 2–1. On clay courts Mertens leads 2–0. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 8 sets to Pegula's 3. Their most recent meeting: Elise Mertens won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 7/20 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 15/49 | 46% | 35/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 19/33 | 50% | 30/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 4/7 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 88% | 42/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 65% | 31/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 3, Pegula 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elise Mertens and Jessica Pegula are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 10, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 15, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 2, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Mar 11, 2021
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 26, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 3 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 5 or more | 43% | 6/14 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–5 | 17–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | +12.4% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | +1.73u | +2.29u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 12 |
| Distance | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km | 761 mi · 1,225 km |
| Route | CAN → POL → AUT | AUT → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Mertens and Pegula posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Mertens | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 61 64 | W 62 62 |
| Coco Gauff | L 62 67 36 | L 26 46 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | W 62 46 75 |
| Emma Navarro | W 62 62 | W 75 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | L 64 46 06 |
| Linda Noskova | L 36 57 | L 46 64 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 62 36 46 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 16 63 60 | W 63 76 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 46 76 63 | W 62 63 |
| Belinda Bencic | L 26 36 | W 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diane Parry
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Final
Aug 30
Nikola Bartunkova
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals
Aug 29
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Panna Udvardy
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Diane Parry
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Anna Bondar
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–76 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 75% |
| Sets won | 58% | 66% |
| Games won | 54% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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