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Head-to-Head

Elena Rybakina vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Elena Rybakina

🇰🇿Elena Rybakina

#2 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed

8
3–3

6 meetings · sets 8–8

Madison Keys

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

Elena Rybakina and Madison Keys have met 6 times since 2022; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2022 on clay. On hard courts Rybakina leads 3–2. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 8 sets to Keys's 8. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorRybakinaKeys
Wins in straight sets68%75%
Wins a set when losing62%53%
Goes to a deciding set37%34%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite60%59%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog71%38%
Tiebreak sets won53%45%
Wins after taking set 194%83%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 180%80%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 1, Keys 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Rybakina

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve
vs

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

6 career meetings, newest first

Aug 13, 2025

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · 4th Round

637
64
62
Rybakina

Jan 20, 2025

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 4th Round

36
61
36
Keys

Mar 25, 2024

Miami Open - Miami

H Hard · 4th Round

63
75
Rybakina

Oct 3, 2022

Ostrava Open - Ostrava

H Hard · 1st Round

57
63
63
Rybakina

Aug 19, 2022

Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · Quarterfinals

26
46
Keys

May 28, 2022

French Open - Paris

C Clay · 3rd Round

63
16
637
Keys

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeRybakinaKeys
1 or more100%100%
3 or more73%68%
5 or more73%37%
10 or more27%16%
15 or more13%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricRybakinaKeys
W-L11–313–6
Avg odds1.321.44
ROI %+6.4%-10.3%
Units P/L+0.90u-1.95u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricRybakinaKeys
Countries22
Events22
Matches86
Distance411 mi · 662 km411 mi · 662 km
RouteCAN → POLCAN → POL

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Keys's 50%).

OpponentRybakinaKeys
Diana Shnaider
W
64
64
L
36
63
06
Liudmila Samsonova
W
64
46
64
L
63
46
46
Marta Kostyuk
W
63
64
L
36
16
Linda Noskova
W
63
64
L
46
67
Amanda Anisimova
W
63
61
W
36
62
63
Tatjana Maria
W
67
75
60
W
75
64
Talia Gibson
W
62
62
W
64
64
Jessica Pegula
W
26
63
64
L
67
67
Karolina Muchova
W
75
61
W
64
75
Xi Yao Wang
W
62
64
W
76
61

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Rybakina
WWWWWWWW
W

Diana Shnaider

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

64
64

Aug 20

W

Magdalena Frech

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

64
762

Aug 17

W

Taylor Townsend

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

63
64

Aug 16

W

Coco Gauff

National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals

57
62
62

Aug 13

W

Naomi Osaka

National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals

46
765
64

Aug 12

W

Liudmila Samsonova

National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round

64
46
64

Aug 9

W

Ann Li

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

62
75

Aug 7

W

Daria Kasatkina

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

63
57
64

Aug 5

Keys
LWWWLWLL
L

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

63
46
657

Aug 21

W

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

763
64

Aug 20

W

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

61
63

Aug 18

W

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

46
63
63

Aug 16

L

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

36
16

Aug 7

W

Antonia Ruzic

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

61
62

Aug 4

L

Liudmila Samsonova

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round

63
46
46

Jul 28

L

Linda Noskova

Wimbledon - London · 4th Round

46
627

Jul 6

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ Rybakinalevel↓ Keys

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–70 matches

MetricRybakinaKeys
Matches won81%68%
Sets won73%65%
Games won58%56%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageRybakinaKeys
Grand Slam02
WTA 50010
WTA 100021

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceRybakinaKeys
Hard32
Clay01

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Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys FAQ

The head-to-head is level at 3–3 over 6 meetings.