Elena Rybakina vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 8–8
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5wElena Rybakina and Madison Keys have met 6 times since 2022; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2022 on clay. On hard courts Rybakina leads 3–2. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 8 sets to Keys's 8. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 40/60 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 7/12 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 27/72 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 39/64 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 6/8 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 9/16 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 47/51 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 40/51 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 1, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Aug 13, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 20, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Mar 25, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 3, 2022
Ostrava Open - Ostrava
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 19, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 28, 2022
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–2 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | +28.5% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 57 62 | L 36 36 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 36 61 64 | L 61 67 57 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 76 63 | W 16 62 63 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 62 64 | W 60 61 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 64 64 | L 36 63 06 |
| Iga Swiatek | L | L 16 26 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 64 46 64 | L 63 46 46 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 63 64 | L 36 16 |
| Antonia Ruzic | L | W 61 62 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 61 | W 36 62 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–72 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 68% |
| Sets won | 74% | 65% |
| Games won | 58% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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