Daria Kasatkina vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 6–7
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8wDaria Kasatkina and Jasmine Paolini have met 5 times since 2018; Jasmine Paolini leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Prague in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Paolini leads 3–1. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 6 sets to Paolini's 7. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at Rothesay International - Eastbourne (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 38% | 17/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 36% | 12/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 67% | 14/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 1, Paolini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,501 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jasmine Paolini.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jun 28, 2024
Rothesay International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Jul 21, 2023
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 3, 2020
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · 1st Round
May 28, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 128
May 2, 2018
Prague
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | +35.3% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paolini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Kasatkina's 33%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 62 67 36 | L 26 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 36 26 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 61 62 |
| Robin Montgomery | L 75 06 46 | W 06 64 75 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 36 16 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | L 64 67 36 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 63 | W 36 62 64 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 57 64 46 | W 67 62 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | W 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–45 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 58% |
| Sets won | 47% | 53% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.