Daria Kasatkina vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 6–7
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Jasmine Paolini have met 5 times since 2018; Jasmine Paolini leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Prague in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Paolini leads 3–1. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 6 sets to Paolini's 7. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at Rothesay International - Eastbourne (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 14% | 1/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 56% | 10/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 1, Paolini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,750 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jasmine Paolini.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jun 28, 2024
Rothesay International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Jul 21, 2023
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 3, 2020
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · 1st Round
May 28, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 128
May 2, 2018
Prague
C Clay · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | -36.5% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | -1.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paolini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Kasatkina's 40%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Viktorija Golubic | W 46 76 64 | W 76 64 |
| Daria Snigur | L 36 63 67 | L 63 67 26 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | L 57 06 | W 61 62 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 62 67 36 | L 26 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 36 26 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 61 62 |
| Robin Montgomery | L 75 06 46 | W 06 64 75 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 36 16 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | L 64 67 36 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 63 | W 36 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–41 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 51% |
| Sets won | 51% | 48% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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