Daria Kasatkina vs Elena RybakinaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 6–10
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Elena Rybakina have met 6 times since 2020; Elena Rybakina leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at J&T Banka Ostrava Open - Ostrava in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Rybakina leads 4–2. Rybakina has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Rybakina leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 6 sets to Rybakina's 10. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Elena Rybakina | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 67% | 40/60 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 38% | 27/72 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 61% | 39/64 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 75% | 6/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 92% | 47/51 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 78% | 40/51 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Rybakina 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,089 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Aug 5, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 11, 2024
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · Final
Aug 12, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 1, 2022
Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic - San Jose
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 10, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 20, 2020
J&T Banka Ostrava Open - Ostrava
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Elena Rybakina | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 94% | 15/16 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 31% | 5/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 13% | 2/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 15–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 1.47 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | +28.5% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | +4.85u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Kasatkina's 40%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Alina Charaeva | W 46 60 64 | L 63 46 36 |
| Paula Badosa | L 64 67 46 | W 63 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | W 64 57 62 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 16 36 | W 61 64 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | L |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 75 63 | W 64 46 64 |
| Ann Li | L 76 26 46 | W 62 75 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | L 67 16 |
| Caty Mcnally | L 26 36 | W 61 62 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–72 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 83% |
| Sets won | 51% | 74% |
| Games won | 51% | 58% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 4 |
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