Daria Kasatkina vs Elena RybakinaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 6–10
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#2 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
8Daria Kasatkina and Elena Rybakina have met 6 times since 2020; Elena Rybakina leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at J&T Banka Ostrava Open - Ostrava in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Rybakina leads 4–2. Rybakina has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Rybakina leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 6 sets to Rybakina's 10. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Elena Rybakina | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 68% | 39/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 37% | 26/70 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 60% | 37/62 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 71% | 5/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 94% | 46/49 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 80% | 39/49 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Rybakina 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,880 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Elena Rybakina.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Aug 5, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 11, 2024
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · Final
Aug 12, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 1, 2022
Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic - San Jose
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 10, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 20, 2020
J&T Banka Ostrava Open - Ostrava
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Rybakina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Elena Rybakina | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 27% | 4/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 11–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.32 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | +6.4% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | +0.90u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 8 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Kasatkina's 30%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Naomi Osaka | L 16 36 | W 46 76 64 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 75 63 | W 64 46 64 |
| Ann Li | L 76 26 46 | W 62 75 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | L 67 16 |
| Caty Mcnally | L 26 36 | W 61 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 46 36 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | L 67 63 26 | W 64 63 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 64 61 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 57 64 46 | L 67 46 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | W 75 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Liudmila Samsonova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Ann Li
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Daria Kasatkina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–70 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 81% |
| Sets won | 47% | 73% |
| Games won | 49% | 58% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 4 |
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