Daniil Medvedev vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Sonego have met 3 times since 2023; Daniil Medvedev leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo in 2023 on clay. On hard courts Medvedev leads 2–0. Medvedev has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 6 sets to Sonego's 2. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 38% | 14/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 53% | 10/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 1, Sonego 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,511 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 30, 2025
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 28, 2024
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 12, 2023
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 2.57 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -42.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -5.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 9 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Medvedev and Sonego posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Medvedev | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | W 75 64 | L 26 36 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 67 16 | L 57 26 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 62 61 | L 75 57 26 |
| James Duckworth | W 67 63 62 | W 64 64 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 67 46 67 | L 36 46 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 62 36 67 | L 46 63 76 57 46 |
| Juncheng Shang | W 61 63 | W 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 64 64 67 76 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 46 76 46 | W 64 76 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 36 75 46 | W 26 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 44% |
| Sets won | 66% | 46% |
| Games won | 56% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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