Carlos Alcaraz vs Mattia BellucciPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Mattia Bellucci have met 1 time since 2025; Carlos Alcaraz leads 1–0. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 3 sets to Bellucci's 0. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Bellucci | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Mattia Bellucci | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 71% | 25/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 33% | 9/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 31% | 19/62 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 61% | 19/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 48% | 12/25 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 86% | 30/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 71% | 25/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Bellucci
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,511 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 27, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Bellucci | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Mattia Bellucci | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 29% | 5/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 10–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -10.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -1.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 10 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 927 mi · 1,492 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bellucci's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Michelsen | W 76 46 61 | L 26 16 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | W 75 62 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 46 1311 | L 06 16 16 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 63 | L 57 36 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | W 76 61 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | W 75 67 62 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 57 62 63 |
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 16 26 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alexandre Muller
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Elias Ymer
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Lloyd Harris
Jingshan Challenger · Final
Oct 4
Yanki Erel
Jingshan Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 3
Adam Walton
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Alexandre Muller
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Keisuke Saitoh
Jingshan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–66 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 55% |
| Sets won | 78% | 53% |
| Games won | 59% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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