Carlos Alcaraz vs Juan Manuel CerundoloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Carlos Alcaraz
#3 · 23 yrs · R
7Title2 meetings · sets 5–1
🇦🇷Juan Manuel Cerundolo
#55 · 24 yrs · L
Carlos Alcaraz and Juan Manuel Cerundolo have met 2 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 5 sets to Cerundolo's 1. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Manuel Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 36% | 20/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 90% | 27/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 70% | 21/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 1, Manuel Cerundolo 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Cerundolo
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Oct 10, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 11, 2021
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 72% | 13/18 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 61% | 11/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 11% | 2/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 7–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 2.95 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -2.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -0.36u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 5 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (88% vs Cerundolo's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 76 61 | L 26 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 63 | W |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 62 64 | L 57 16 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 67 63 62 | W 46 76 76 |
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 16 26 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 36 | W 36 26 75 61 61 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 64 64 | L 75 26 16 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | W 64 67 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Carlos Alcaraz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Nicolas Mejia
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Bu Yunchaokete
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Yi Zhou
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Arthur Gea
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Ignacio Buse
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · Quarterfinals
Aug 27
Sebastian Baez
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–63 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 59% |
| Sets won | 78% | 54% |
| Games won | 59% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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