Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Francisco CerundoloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Francisco Cerundolo have met 2 times since 2021; Francisco Cerundolo leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Buenos Aires Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Cerundolo leads 2–0. Cerundolo has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Cerundolo leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 1 sets to Cerundolo's 4. Their most recent meeting: Francisco Cerundolo won at Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 73% | 22/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 33% | 6/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 29% | 14/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 69% | 22/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Cerundolo 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 29, 2022
Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger
C Clay · Final
Oct 19, 2021
Buenos Aires Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | -47.1% | +14.1% |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerundolo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Carabelli's 10%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 46 36 36 | W 57 75 46 62 63 |
| Filip Misolic | L 57 67 | W 64 63 75 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | W 75 16 76 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 36 46 | W 67 63 64 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 46 76 26 | W 64 67 62 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | W 63 76 63 |
| Emilio Nava | W 76 63 63 | W 61 61 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 46 26 | W 60 62 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 46 36 | W 61 75 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 76 16 57 | L 75 06 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jakub Mensik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Roman Safiullin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Botic van de Zandschulp
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Casper Ruud
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Mert Alkaya
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Yanki Erel
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–60 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 63% |
| Sets won | 47% | 60% |
| Games won | 48% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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