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Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Brandon Nakashima

🇺🇸Brandon Nakashima

#17 · 25 yrs · R

3
2–4

6 meetings · sets 6–9

Mackenzie McDonald

🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald

#146 · 31 yrs · R

4

Brandon Nakashima and Mackenzie McDonald have met 6 times since 2020; Mackenzie McDonald leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Orlando Challenger in 2020 on hard. On hard courts McDonald leads 4–1. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 6 sets to McDonald's 9. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorNakashimaMcDonald
Wins in straight sets74%68%
Wins a set when losing33%24%
Goes to a deciding set29%28%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite54%50%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog69%29%
Tiebreak sets won50%41%
Wins after taking set 188%87%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 174%74%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 2, McDonald 3).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Nakashima

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve
vs

McDonald

⚙️ Grinder

Relentless consistencyDeep court positioningHigh rally toleranceMental fortitude

Matchup analysis

The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Brandon Nakashima.

Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.

Previous meetings

6 career meetings, newest first

Apr 3, 2025

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

C Clay · 2nd Round

61
75
Nakashima

Jul 23, 2024

Atlanta Open - Atlanta

H Hard · 1st Round

26
46
McDonald

Mar 1, 2023

Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco

H Hard · 2nd Round

26
06
McDonald

Jan 16, 2023

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 1st Round

657
617
61
7610
46
McDonald

Aug 16, 2021

Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · 1st Round

57
26
McDonald

Nov 20, 2020

Orlando Challenger

H Hard · Quarterfinals

63
768
Nakashima

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeNakashimaMcDonald
1 or more100%100%
3 or more100%50%
5 or more91%38%
10 or more43%0%
15 or more14%0%
20 or more10%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricNakashimaMcDonald
W-L16–55–6
Avg odds1.871.96
ROI %+38.6%-24.7%
Units P/L+8.10u-2.72u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricNakashimaMcDonald
Countries21
Events31
Matches131
Distance1,200 mi · 1,932 km0 mi · 0 km
RouteUSA → CAN → USACAN

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs McDonald's 11%).

OpponentNakashimaMcDonald
Aleksandar Kovacevic
W
62
75
L
62
16
26
Alex de Minaur
W
76
64
L
26
26
36
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
W
63
64
L
76
67
36
Jan-Lennard Struff
L
64
67
67
76
67
L
62
36
46
Patrick Kypson
W
64
64
L
63
16
46
46
Nikoloz Basilashvili
L
67
46
L
26
67
Elias Ymer
W
63
64
L
67
64
46
Botic van de Zandschulp
L
36
64
67
67
W
64
36
63
Quentin Halys
W
62
64
L
36
26

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Nakashima
LWWWWLWW
L

Frances Tiafoe

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals

57
36

Aug 23

W

Taylor Fritz

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

769
46
63

Aug 21

W

Nuno Borges

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

63
657
63

Aug 20

W

Daniil Medvedev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

637
764
61

Aug 18

W

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

62
75

Aug 16

L

Ben Shelton

National Bank Open - Montreal · Final

36
647

Aug 14

W

Rafael Jodar

National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals

763
64

Aug 13

W

Luciano Darderi

National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals

62
63

Aug 11

McDonald
LLLLWWWL
L

Jacob Fearnley

Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round

46
57

Aug 20

L

Alex Michelsen

Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round

46
57

Jul 28

L

Adam Walton

Newport Challenger · 1st Round

16
36

Jul 8

L

Patrick Kypson

Wimbledon - London · 1st Round

63
16
46
46

Jun 30

W

Roberto Carballes Baena

Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying

64
64

Jun 29

W

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying

62
6577
63

Jun 29

W

Christopher O'Connell

Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying

63
64
64

Jun 25

L

Shintaro Mochizuki

Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round

637
57

Jun 16

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ NakashimaMcDonald ahead↓ McDonald

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–61 matches

MetricNakashimaMcDonald
Matches won61%49%
Sets won59%48%
Games won53%50%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageNakashimaMcDonald
Grand Slam01
ATP 25010
ATP World Tour 25001
ATP World Tour 50001
ATP World Tour Masters 100001
ATP Challenger Tour10

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceNakashimaMcDonald
Hard14
Clay10

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Brandon Nakashima vs Mackenzie McDonald FAQ

Mackenzie McDonald leads the head-to-head 4–2 over 6 meetings.