Brandon Nakashima vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Mackenzie McDonald have met 6 times since 2020; Mackenzie McDonald leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Orlando Challenger in 2020 on hard. On hard courts McDonald leads 4–1. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 6 sets to McDonald's 9. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/52 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 19/34 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 15/29 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 29/34 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 24/34 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 2, McDonald 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 720 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Brandon Nakashima.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Apr 3, 2025
US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 23, 2024
Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 1, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 16, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 16, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 20, 2020
Orlando Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs McDonald's 0%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Michelsen | L 36 46 46 | L 46 57 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | L 62 16 26 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | L 26 26 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | L 76 67 36 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 64 67 67 76 67 | L 62 36 46 |
| Patrick Kypson | W 64 64 | L 63 16 46 46 |
| Elias Ymer | W 63 64 | L 67 64 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–60 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 41% |
| Sets won | 59% | 43% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 4 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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