Brandon Nakashima vs Luciano DarderiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Luciano Darderi have met 3 times since 2025; Brandon Nakashima leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Hamburg Open - Hamburg in 2025 on clay. On hard courts Nakashima leads 2–0. Nakashima has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 5 sets to Darderi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Luciano Darderi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/52 | 42% | 22/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 19/34 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 15/29 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 29/34 | 81% | 22/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 24/34 | 59% | 16/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 2, Darderi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 11, 2026
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 20, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round
May 21, 2025
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Luciano Darderi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 95% | 19/20 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 80% | 16/20 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 50% | 10/20 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 15% | 3/20 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 10% | 2/20 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 13–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.13 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | +5.1% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | +1.07u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Darderi's 50%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | L 67 75 46 | L 26 26 67 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 62 61 60 | W 64 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 64 67 67 | L 16 06 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 63 64 | W 26 64 62 |
| Nuno Borges | W 63 67 63 | W 46 63 75 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 64 | W 76 57 60 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | W 64 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | L 06 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | L 36 63 510 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 63 36 46 | L 75 67 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Casper Ruud
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 8
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Harry Wendelken
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–64 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 56% |
| Sets won | 59% | 54% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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