Brandon Nakashima vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Lorenzo Sonego have met 2 times since 2024; Lorenzo Sonego leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Hong Kong in 2024 on hard. Sonego has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 2 sets to Sonego's 5. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Sonego won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 38% | 14/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 18/33 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 28/33 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 53% | 10/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Sonego 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Brandon Nakashima and Lorenzo Sonego are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,464 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 5, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Dec 30, 2024
Hong Kong
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 4–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.57 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | -42.4% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | -5.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Sonego's 30%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Ugo Humbert | L 36 26 | L 76 06 36 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 67 75 46 | L 46 63 76 57 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | L 36 46 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | L 64 36 46 67 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 67 76 61 | L 63 67 46 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 76 61 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 67 | L 57 36 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 61 | W 64 76 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 67 67 | L 67 57 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 64 64 67 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–59 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 44% |
| Sets won | 58% | 46% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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