Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana CirsteaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 5–4
🇷🇴Sorana Cirstea
#16 · 36 yrs · Right-Handed
5wAryna Sabalenka and Sorana Cirstea have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2023 on hard. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 5 sets to Cirstea's 4. Their most recent meeting: Sorana Cirstea won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 78% | 32/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 30% | 17/57 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 75% | 30/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 65% | 11/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 80% | 12/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 93% | 37/40 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 80% | 32/40 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Cirstea 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Cirstea
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 8, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 27, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 29, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.98 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -20.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -1.40u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Sabalenka and Cirstea posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 46 36 | W 76 63 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 36 46 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 62 36 67 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | W 64 64 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | W 63 63 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | W 61 76 |
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | W |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 36 64 26 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 61 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Jasmine Paolini
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Diane Parry
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Julia Grabher
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Anna Kalinskaya
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Nikola Bartunkova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Maya Joint
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 72% |
| Sets won | 79% | 69% |
| Games won | 59% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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