Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana CirsteaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 5–4
🇷🇴Sorana Cirstea
#17 · 36 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Sorana Cirstea have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2023 on hard. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 5 sets to Cirstea's 4. Their most recent meeting: Sorana Cirstea won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 76% | 29/38 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 32% | 18/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 71% | 27/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 61% | 11/18 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 79% | 11/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 92% | 34/37 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 78% | 29/37 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Cirstea 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Cirstea
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Sorana Cirstea are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jan 8, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 27, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 29, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Cirstea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Sorana Cirstea | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 89% | 8/9 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 44% | 4/9 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 11% | 1/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -38.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -3.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Sabalenka and Cirstea posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | W 61 76 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 26 64 57 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 26 76 64 | W 76 63 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | W 26 64 62 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 36 64 26 |
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | L 62 36 67 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | W 61 76 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 62 76 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Nikola Bartunkova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Maya Joint
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Kimberly Birrell
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Sara Bejlek
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Emma Raducanu
The HSBC Championships - London · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Maddison Inglis
The HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 68% |
| Sets won | 79% | 65% |
| Games won | 59% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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