Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 11–5
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#58 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa have met 7 times since 2021; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 11 sets to Badosa's 5. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 31% | 14/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 51% | 19/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 38% | 3/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 83% | 20/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Badosa 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jan 23, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 1, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Mar 22, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 21, 2023
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 23, 2022
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 11, 2021
WTA Finals - Guadalajara
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 18, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -4.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -0.64u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 10,936 mi · 17,599 km |
| Route | ROU | BRA → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Badosa's 14%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | L 67 57 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | W 46 76 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 36 26 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 16 36 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 46 67 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 26 16 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | L |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Daria Kasatkina
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Nadia Podoroska
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Semifinals
Sep 19
Mary Stoiana
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Jazmin Ortenzi
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Justina Mikulskyte
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Daria Kasatkina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 60% |
| Sets won | 79% | 59% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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