Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 11–5
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#83 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5wAryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa have met 7 times since 2021; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 11 sets to Badosa's 5. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 55% | 17/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 50% | 4/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 83% | 19/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 78% | 18/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Badosa 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jan 23, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 1, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Mar 22, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 21, 2023
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 23, 2022
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 11, 2021
WTA Finals - Guadalajara
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 18, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 35% | 6/17 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.70 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +18.2% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +3.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Badosa's 20%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | L 16 36 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 16 63 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 36 26 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 26 16 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | L 75 26 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Mayar Sherif
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Panna Udvardy
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Katarzyna Kawa
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 1st Round
Jul 22
Tamara Zidansek
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Semifinals
Jul 18
Panna Udvardy
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Alevtina Ibragimova
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Anhelina Kalinina
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 1st Round
Jul 14
Simona Waltert
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 59% |
| Sets won | 79% | 59% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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