Aryna Sabalenka vs Katie BoulterPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 8–1
🇬🇧Katie Boulter
#54 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Katie Boulter have met 4 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 8 sets to Boulter's 1. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Katie Boulter | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 36% | 15/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 41% | 7/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 79% | 19/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 54% | 13/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Boulter 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Boulter
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Katie Boulter are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 9, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 3, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 30, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 16, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Katie Boulter | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 3.03 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -36.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -2.89u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Boulter's 50%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | L 67 16 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | W 75 26 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 46 46 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 36 36 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | W 64 62 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 62 64 | W |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | W 61 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 75 46 26 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 76 64 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | L 36 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Mai Hontama
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Karolina Muchova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Carol Young Suh Lee
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Katie Volynets
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Kayla Cross
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Ashlyn Krueger
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 50% |
| Sets won | 79% | 49% |
| Games won | 59% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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