Aryna Sabalenka vs Katie BoulterPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 8–1
🇬🇧Katie Boulter
#60 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Katie Boulter have met 4 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 8 sets to Boulter's 1. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Katie Boulter | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 35% | 7/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 38% | 15/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 47% | 8/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 52% | 12/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Boulter 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Boulter
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 9, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 3, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 30, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 16, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Katie Boulter | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 80% | 8/10 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 30% | 3/10 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.26 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +3.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +0.31u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Boulter's 50%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | L 36 36 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | W 62 61 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 46 46 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | W 61 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | W 75 26 64 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 75 46 26 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 76 64 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | L 36 16 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | W 75 57 64 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | L 36 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Linda Noskova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Katie Volynets
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Kayla Cross
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Ashlyn Krueger
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Tyra Caterina Grant
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Leylah Fernandez
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 1st Round
Jun 21
Donna Vekic
The HSBC Championships - London · Semifinals
Jun 13
Elena Rybakina
The HSBC Championships - London · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 40–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 50% |
| Sets won | 79% | 49% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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