Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina PliskovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 7–6
🇨🇿Karolina Pliskova
#56 · 34 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova have met 5 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Eastbourne in 2018 on grass. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 7 sets to Pliskova's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Pliskova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Pliskova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 35% | 11/31 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 57% | 8/14 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 78% | 7/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 88% | 14/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 75% | 12/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 1, Pliskova 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Pliskova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 7, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 14, 2021
Rogers Cup - Montreal
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 8, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Semifinals
Aug 15, 2018
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Jun 29, 2018
Eastbourne
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Pliskova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Pliskova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 64% | 7/11 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.13 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -13.6% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -1.50u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Pliskova's 60%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 06 26 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 75 64 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 61 63 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 67 63 64 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | W 64 76 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 46 63 75 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 06 26 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | W 67 76 64 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 16 76 36 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Oleksandra Oliynykova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Iga Swiatek
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Tereza Valentova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Marie Bouzkova
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · Semifinals
Jun 20
Talia Gibson
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Caty Mcnally
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · 2nd Round
Jun 18
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 31–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 61% |
| Sets won | 79% | 58% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.