Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 8–3
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko have met 5 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Zhengzhou in 2019 on hard. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Ostapenko leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 8 sets to Ostapenko's 3. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 68% | 15/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 41% | 16/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 60% | 9/15 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 65% | 15/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Ostapenko 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jul 3, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Apr 21, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Final
May 15, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 22, 2023
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Sep 12, 2019
Zhengzhou
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -26.5% | -7.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.97u | -0.54u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 1 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Ostapenko's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 46 36 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 64 62 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 64 36 26 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | L 16 67 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | W 46 64 64 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | L 36 46 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 64 46 46 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | W 57 62 75 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | L 36 26 |
| Rebecca Sramkova | W 46 63 61 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 56% |
| Sets won | 79% | 56% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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