Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Ekaterina Alexandrova
#24 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
9 meetings · sets 8–13
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Jelena Ostapenko have met 9 times since 2018; Jelena Ostapenko leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at Seoul in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Ostapenko leads 5–2. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Ostapenko has won the last 5 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Alexandrova has taken 8 sets to Ostapenko's 13. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alexandrova | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 16/23 | 71% | 17/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 12/27 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 19/50 | 40% | 17/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 40% | 12/30 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 10/17 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 19/23 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 65% | 17/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alexandrova 2, Ostapenko 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alexandrova
🤖 Servebot
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Feb 10, 2026
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 20, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 4, 2024
Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz
H Hard · Final
Jan 12, 2024
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 12, 2023
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 25, 2022
Hana Bank Korea Open - Seoul
H Hard · Final
Apr 28, 2022
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 12, 2019
Linz
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 20, 2018
Seoul
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alexandrova | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 6/6 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 11/14 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 8/14 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alexandrova | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–6 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.51 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | +37.6% | -34.0% |
| Units P/L | +5.26u | -2.04u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alexandrova | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Distance | 654 mi · 1,053 km | 592 mi · 952 km |
| Route | ROU → CZE | POR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Alexandrova and Ostapenko posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Alexandrova | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Mirra Andreeva | L 67 67 | L 75 26 46 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 64 16 26 | L 46 36 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 76 46 64 | L 46 46 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 63 76 | W 63 61 |
| Panna Udvardy | W 64 62 | W 36 61 62 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 57 64 46 | W 63 60 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W | L 64 46 46 |
| Magda Linette | L 26 64 16 | L 26 62 26 |
| Camila Osorio | L 26 46 | W 63 61 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | W 64 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Leylah Fernandez
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Mirra Andreeva
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Linda Noskova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Diana Shnaider
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Marta Kostyuk
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Kimberly Birrell
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Mccartney Kessler
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–50 matches
| Metric | Alexandrova | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 57% |
| Sets won | 49% | 57% |
| Games won | 50% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alexandrova | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 4 |
| WTA 250 | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alexandrova | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 5 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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