Ann Li vs Aryna SabalenkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Ann Li
#30 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Ann Li and Aryna Sabalenka have met 3 times since 2021; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Li has taken 1 sets to Sabalenka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Li | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ann Li | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 16/27 | 84% | 42/50 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 13/29 | 70% | 7/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 24/56 | 25% | 15/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 34% | 11/32 | 69% | 41/59 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 11/18 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 20/22 | 92% | 45/49 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 16/22 | 86% | 42/49 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Li 0, Sabalenka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Li
🤖 Servebot
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 20, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 16, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 12, 2021
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Li | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ann Li | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| 1 or more | 85% | 11/13 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 54% | 7/13 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 10 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 20% | 3/15 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–7 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.38 | 1.16 |
| ROI % | -22.5% | -23.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.93u | -3.75u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL → AUT | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Li's 20%).
| Opponent | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 16 67 | W 62 46 63 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 75 63 | W 63 64 |
| Talia Gibson | L 36 57 | W 62 76 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 16 76 16 | L 67 64 46 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 26 57 | W 64 63 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 16 26 | L 46 76 06 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 67 62 64 | W 60 75 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | L 46 36 | W 63 62 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 06 76 36 | W 64 63 |
| Linda Noskova | L 36 75 46 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diane Parry
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals
Aug 29
Alycia Parks
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Shuai Zhang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Kayla Cross
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Magdalena Frech
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–60 matches
| Metric | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 83% |
| Sets won | 49% | 79% |
| Games won | 50% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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