Ann Li vs Aryna SabalenkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Ann Li
#31 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Ann Li and Aryna Sabalenka have met 3 times since 2021; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Li has taken 1 sets to Sabalenka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Li | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ann Li | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 19/31 | 86% | 44/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 12/27 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 24/58 | 23% | 14/62 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 14/36 | 70% | 42/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 8/17 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 23/25 | 94% | 48/51 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 19/25 | 86% | 44/51 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Li 0, Sabalenka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Li
🤖 Servebot
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 20, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 16, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 12, 2021
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Li | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ann Li | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 27% | 4/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–7 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.48 | 1.17 |
| ROI % | -8.3% | -18.6% |
| Units P/L | -1.24u | -2.61u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Li's 40%).
| Opponent | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Elina Svitolina | L 26 36 | W 62 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 26 57 | L 46 75 26 |
| Linda Noskova | L 26 76 26 | W 76 36 76 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 46 62 63 | W 63 64 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 61 62 | W 62 64 |
| Coco Gauff | L 16 67 | W 62 46 63 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 75 63 | W 63 64 |
| Talia Gibson | L 36 57 | W 62 76 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 16 76 16 | L 67 64 46 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 67 62 64 | W 60 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elina Svitolina
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Belinda Bencic
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Ashlyn Krueger
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Donna Vekic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Antonia Ruzic
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Diane Parry
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals
Aug 29
Alycia Parks
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–62 matches
| Metric | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 82% |
| Sets won | 53% | 79% |
| Games won | 51% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Li | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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